Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
