Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
